The rants and raves of a teenage cinephile who is just a little bit obsessed with Catherine O'Hara and Hayao Miyazaki.

Monday, January 24, 2011

Final Oscar Predictions (AKA Peer Pressure)

Well, I wasn't going to do this. I was going to leave the Oscar predictions to everyone else but here I am! Hehe. So here are my predictions. With alternates! Yay!

Best Picture
127 Hours
Black Swan
The Fighter
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone
Alt: The Town

I was this close to not predicting "Toy Story 3". I've had this bad feeling about it from the beginning of the season and I'll kick myself if it does get snubbed but it just seems like it's doing too well. Otherwise, perhaps the "127 Hours" thing is just wishful thinking but it and "The Town" both seem to be in the same kind of buzz boat so I'm thinking it'll be the former that makes it in due to other possible nods (Franco, screenplay, cinematography?).

Darren Aronofsky, "Black Swan"
David Fincher, "The Social Network"
Tom Hooper, "The King's Speech"
Christopher Nolan, "Inception"
David O. Russell, "The Fighter"
Alt. Debra Granik, "Winter's Bone"

Debra has support in high places. So, perhaps she could pull a spoiler. But who'd she kick out?

Lead Actor
Jeff Bridges, "True Grit"
Robert Duvall, "Get Low"
Jesse Eisenberg, "The Social Network"
Colin Firth, "The King's Speech"
James Franco, "127 Hours"
Alt. Ryan Gosling, "Blue Valentine"

Totally playing it safe with the Duvall thing, though I think it's doubtful. But, as much as I'd love to see Gosling get it, I just feel like it's very unlikely.

Lead Actress
Annette Bening, "The Kids Are All Right"
Nicole Kidman, "Rabbit Hole"
Jennifer Lawrence, "Winter's Bone"
Natalie Portman, "Black Swan"
Hailee Steinfeld, "True Grit"
Alt. Michelle Williams, "Blue Valentine"

Honestly, that fifth spot is SO scary. It could be anyone, it could be Tilda Swinton for all I know! Her age aside, the category fraud thing could either get Steinfeld snubbed totes (think Cotillard and Laurent last year) or upgraded (Winslet or Castle-Hughes?). At least there'll be something surprising. You know, I fear for Nicole Kidman. I really want her to get nominated but she could be the surprise snub. Seriously people, watch out.

Supporting Actor
Christian Bale, "The Fighter"
Andrew Garfield, "The Social Network"
Jeremy Renner, "The Town"
Mark Ruffalo, "The Kids Are All Right"
Geoffrey Rush, "The King's Speech"
Alt. John Hawkes, "Winter's Bone"

I'd like to see John Hawkes in here, but this category seems locked and he'd probably have to kick out Garfield, which would also be very sad. Otherwise, Rush isn't going to win so is it bad to say that I don't really care about this category...?

Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, "The Fighter"
Helena Bonham Carter, "The King's Speech"
Mila Kunis, "Black Swan"
Melissa Leo, "The Fighter"
Jacki Weaver, "Animal Kingdom"
Alt. Hailee Steinfeld, "True Grit"

Well, with Hailee out of the way, there's room for everyone to be happy! Ha. Right. The problem with this lineup is that the Oscars rarely make everyone happy, so having Kunis and Weaver is probably not going to happen. I'm going to go and make the risky prediction anyway.

Original Screenplay
"Another Year"
"The Fighter"
"The Kids Are All Right"
"The King's Speech"
Alt. "Please Give"

Well, Mike Leigh is popular here. I'd like to see "Please Give" pull a spoiler but I think it'll be one of those surprising WGA things that doesn't go anywhere.

Adapted Screenplay
"127 Hours"
"The Social Network"
"Toy Story 3"
"True Grit"
"Winter's Bone"
Alt. "The Ghost Writer"

The writers have really good taste and aren't afraid to be unique, so "Ghost Writer" is very probable. I'd like this lineup though, I really do. Strong group of movies.

Foreign Film
"In A Better World"
"Life Above All"

Yes. I really want "Confessions" to get nominated because I really want to see it. Haha! I'm so selfish.

"How To Train Your Dragon"
"The Illusionist"
"Toy Story 3"
Alt. "Tangled"

Pleeeeease no "Tangled". I forgot about "Despicable Me" but...hopefully the Academy does too. Hehe!

Uh...I don't really know but please "Exit Through the Gift Shop"? Teehee.

"Black Swan"
"True Grit"
"The King's Speech"
"Alice in Wonderland"
Alt: "Made in Dagenham"

"Black Swan"
"The King's Speech"
"The Social Network"
"True Grit"
Alt: "127 Hours"

Art Direction
"Alice in Wonderland"
"Black Swan"
"The King's Speech"
"Shutter Island"
Alt: "True Grit"

"127 Hours"
"Black Swan"
"The King's Speech"
"The Social Network"
Alt: "The Fighter"

That was a toughie. I think "Black Swan" is very likely the snubee for "The Fighter" but for now...

Visual Effects
"Alice in Wonderland"
"Harry Potter And the Deathly Hallows Part 1"
"Iron Man 2"
"Tron Legacy"
Alt: "Scott Pilgrim VS The World"

PLEEEEASE let it be Scott Pilgrim. But I didn't want to jinx it by predicting it.

"Alice in Wonderland"
"Barney's Version"
"True Grit"
Alt. "The Wolfman"

Remember that weird "Il Divo" nom last year? Yep.

Original Score
"How to Train Your Dragon"
"The King's Speech"
"Never Let Me Go"
"The Social Network"
Alt: "127 Hours"

I've not seen "Never Let Me Go" yet, but I'd be happy with this crew of nominees. Actually, as long as "Dragon" and "Network" get this, I'd be happy. Ecstatic, in fact! Oh, I hope it happens.

Original Song
If I Rise from "127 Hours"
I See the Light from "Tangled"
Sticks and Stones from "How to Train Your Dragon"
We Belong Together from "Toy Story 3"
You Haven't Seen the Last of Me from "Burlesque"
Alt. Um, something from "Country Strong"?

Hm, this should be interesting. I honestly have no idea.

I won't predict the sound categories. But wouldn't it be lovely if the much deserving "Scott Pilgrim" made it into one of those? Ha. Who am I kidding.

Anyway, so, who's excited for the Oscar nominations? I actually have a big recital tomorrow night, so hopefully they're to my liking. Or else it might not go so well. Kidding!


  1. I'm not all that disappointed with the Oscars this year, except no love for Christopher Nolan, or The Town for that matter. However, it doesn't matter all that much really since The Social Network is practically going to win everything it's nominated for. Which kind of blows, but hey it really was an amazing piece of work. Can't wait for the show!

  2. Glad you jumped on the bandwagon! I see you had the same downfall as I with categorizing Steinfeld. I sort of figured they'd Kate Winslet her and put her in her proper category, but alas... It did seem really weird that Jacki and Mila would make it anyway...


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