The rants and raves of a teenage cinephile who is just a little bit obsessed with Catherine O'Hara and Hayao Miyazaki.

Tuesday, October 19, 2010

Some Oscar Predictions...

Okay, so I very much enjoy the Oscars, and I do like reading other people's predictions, but sometimes I feel like I don't really have the knowledge or do enough research to formulate my own. But! I'm going to try anyway, just for fun. And I think some of these pics are stupidly risky, but hey! I might be right. So, here we go...

Best Picture
127 Hours
Another Year
Black Swan
The Fighter
The Kids are All Right
The King's Speech
The Social Network
True Grit
Winter's Bone

Let me explain something. I did not include "Toy Story 3" because, though the general consensus is that it's going to get nominated...I just have this feeling about it. Like...neither of the other Toy Story movies were nominated for Best Picture before. And the only other "third movies" that have been nominated were "The Godfather Part III" and "LOTR: ROTK", and, Toy Story ain't one of those. But, hey. It'll probably happen and all of my denial will be for naught. Moving on...

Best Director
Danny Boyle, 127 Hours
David Fincher, The Social Network
Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
Mike Leigh, Another Year
Christopher Nolan, Inception

Pretty obvious here. Veterans, best-picture-frontrunners, the works.

Best Actress
Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Lesley Manville, Another Year
Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Naomi Watts, Fair Game

Hm, I feel really good about the top four, but I struggled to pick the last...there are so many possibilities. I went with Watts because her part seems somewhat baity. Plus, her role is a bit different - Bening, Manville and Moore are in lighter, indie movies that I think will keep Anne Hathaway and Jennifer Lawrence out. So, Watts it is. Plus, we mustn't forget that Watts has had a good year, with a hilarious turn in "You Will Meet a Tall Dark Stranger" and giving an absolutely heartbreaking performance in "Mother and Child".

Also, I don't think that Diane Lane can be compared to Sandra Bullock any more. Sandra had WAY more unexpected buzz last year and "The Blind Side" unbelievably got some amazing reviews. "Secretariat" is kind of dead, at this point.

Best Actor
Jeff Bridges, True Grit
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Colin Firth, The King's Speech
James Franco, 127 Hours
Mark Wahlberg, The Fighter

Jesse Eisenberg is really wishful thinking, though I think he definitely has a shot. Firth and Franco, I think, are definitely in. Wahlberg and Bridges look good on paper, but it depends on the movies. So we'll just wait and see.

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, The Fighter
Helena Bonham-Carter, The King's Speech
Macy Gray, For Colored Girls
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Jackie Weaver, Animal Kingdom

Ha! This may seem way too weird to actually happen, but I think that the five I chose actually all have a pretty good shot. Amy Adams and the Academy get along well, and they'll surely like that she's playing "off-type" (unless Leo steals her thunder). I cannot WAIT for Helena, she will surely be nominated. I chose Macy Gray because she's getting some early good reviews, and this would be the perfect category for a singer-gone-actress to catch a surprise nom. I'm curious about Steinfeld, but it was between her and Barbara Hershey and I figured that they'll only choose one crazy matriarch (Jackie Weaver, who's got a great campaign).

Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale, The Fighter
Vincent Cassell, Black Swan
Andrew Garfield, The Social Network
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech

These are just some weird guesses. I really want Garfield and Ruffalo to get in, so hopefully it happens. Rush is fo-sho. Cassell is interesting, and maybe they'll go for it, you know, to spice things up. And I'm not a big Bale fan but if he's good it's a baity role...

SO that's it from me for now. I might predict some of the smaller categories later if I get inspired. But what do you think? This is my first time making predix so advice and comments are appreciated as always! :)


  1. Hmmmm.... Some interesting choices. If The Fighter gets nominated, I may lose my mind. It has one of the worst trailers in quite a long time.

  2. I hope The King's Speech wins everything. I haven't actually seen it. I just like Colin Firth.

    And although I disagree with you on Toy Story 3, I totally know what you mean by just having a feeling. That's what Oscar predicting is all about.

  3. I had that same feeling for Toy Story 3 in the spring before it came out....but it was just too well received to not get a nomination.

    And unless something like True Grit doesn't settle well, I just don't see Black Swan getting nominated. Just seems like it would be too...not sure if I know the word..."something" for the Academy. I expect I'll love it, but not Oscar voters.

    I do think that Lane is done, but I'm not sure if both Kids actresses get nominated. The category is just too stacked.

  4. Blake: I still hold out hope for it...that cast, along with David O. Russell could be great.

    Emily and Red: You guys are totally right about the Toy Story thing. It almost surely will be nominated but I just can't shake the feeling! Plus if it doesn't happen, I want to have proof that I called it first :P

    Red: You have a point about Black Swan, though Aronofsky has had good luck with his actors so even if the movie is disliked by the Academy I think Portman will still get in. And Julianne might have a harder time getting in than it seemed when I did this list, what with Jennifer Lawrence, Halle Berry and even Gwyneth Paltrow at the edges...


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